German-French “No” To Euro-Bond Pushes EU Closer To Brink
As we all know already, on Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy met and, in a move the financial world was dreading (but should have predicted), rejected the global push for a euro-bond.In a move that essentially signals to the European Union, “Screw this, you’re on your own,” Germany and France have, whether consciously wanting to or not, drawn the proverbial (and political) line in the economic sand.
And with this resolve, the financial world (and Wall Street – bastion of policy ignorance) can begin preparing for the eventual demise – or at least reconfiguration – of the European Union.
The European Union, while a fantastically optimistic, enthusiastic, and forward-looking POLITICAL concept has utterly failed as an economic one.
The confidence (and genius) of its inception has been eclipsed by an utterly dismal execution.
Consequently, no matter what transpires from this day forward, the financial (and political) world MUST prepare for the major shakeup – if not complete disintegration (though this is a much less likely scenario compared with one in which the EU’s “core countries” kick out the deadbeats and reassert dominance) – of the European Union.
In short, financially – and future-wise - the EU is, well, f#cked.
Let’s look at the economic fundamentals: within the past few months, euro-curious investors have snapped up Italian and Spanish sovereign debt, pushing down yields, and, most importantly, masking the most salient fundamentals underlying the EU’s impending collapse.
Remember: the European Financial Stabilization Fund Wall Street (and the world) has praised as the “savior of Europe” is set up to max out at 440B euro. Most worrisome for the EU, however?: Italy and Spain (JUST Italy and Spain, remember) have, in the NEXT YEAR, funding needs of ~ 840B euro.
Prepairing For Crisis - News
Margaret Bogenrief is a partner with ACM Partners, a boutique crisis management and investment firm serving companies and municipalities in financial distress. As we all know already, on Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President
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For instance, financial experts judging the odds of a European crisis look to the market price for insuring Italian and Greek debt in judging the riskiness of those sovereign debts – not the credit rating that those countries receive.
Debt crisis – Italy is preparing a drastic austerity plan ...
Berlusconi government will adopt on Friday a new austerity plan drastic 45 billion euros over two years, hoping to stop speculative attacks against Italy, caught by the debt crisis in the euro area. The new measures, in addition to an austerity of 48 billion euros adopted in mid-July by Parliament, will get “20 billion in 2012 and 25 billion in 2013,” said Silvio Berlusconi meeting the social partners. The plan “anti-crisis” which will be a decree must be approved by the Cabinet from 19 hours.
Great novelty, Cavaliere, 74, has announced a “solidarity tax” for the highest incomes. According to media reports, it will be 5% above 90 000 euros per year, 10% for more than 150 000 euros. Anxious to spare the electorate’s center-right Silvio Berlusconi opposed any increase until the tax burden, but the Northern League, its key ally, convinced he had to find a balance between sacrifice requested the wealthy and the middle class. Under market pressure, Italy, which is buckling under a huge debt to arrive end of June more than 1900 billion euros (120% of GDP), promised Friday to its European partners to return to a balanced budget as soon 2013 instead of 2014, against a deficit of 3.8% in late 2011.Silvio Berlusconi has also announced plans to “cut in the cost of politics,” referring to a pressing demand of the opinion Public furious privileges of “caste” as is now known as the political class. The head of government, one of the richest in Italy, spoke of a couple of steps to save $ 8.5 billion in two years on the functioning of the state. Rome also intends to “reduce the number of provinces” (departments) and “Towns” smaller. An initial very negative reaction came from local authorities, which will require nine billion euros in additional savings over two years. The President of the Italian department, Giuseppe Castiglione, spoke of plan “unfair and depressing” for growth.
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